Market Pulse | Steven Leckie

TransactionsAED 26.7BWeekly sales volume across Dubai

Avg Price / sq ftAED 1,924Market-wide average price per sqft

Off-Plan65%+45.0%% of sales that are future delivery

YoY Growth+20.4%Year-over-year price change

Transactions (7d)

Weekly transaction count is the market's heartbeat. More transactions = more activity = more liquidity. In Dubai, healthy weekly volume is typically 1,200–2,000 transactions. Below 800 suggests a quiet market; above 2,500 suggests a heated one.

Key questions to ask:

What proportion are off-plan vs ready? (Tells you if it's speculation or end-user demand)
What proportion are mortgage-backed? (Higher mortgage share = more end-users, more sustainable)
Is volume rising alongside prices, or diverging?

Opportunity lens:

High transaction volume gives you negotiating power — more options, more sellers, more data to benchmark. Low volume means fewer opportunities but potentially less competition if you find the right deal.

Avg Price / sq ft

This is the average price per square foot across all Dubai property transactions. Think of it as the market's pulse — when this number moves, the entire market is moving.

Key questions to ask:

Is this driven by luxury areas (Palm, Downtown) pulling the average up, or is it broad-based growth?
How does this compare to the city I'm investing from? (London: ~AED 5,200/sqft, Singapore: ~AED 3,800/sqft — Dubai is still relatively affordable)
Is the rate of change accelerating or slowing?

Opportunity lens:

A rising average with rising transaction volume suggests genuine demand, not just price inflation. A rising average with falling volume could signal that only expensive properties are trading — the broader market may be cooling.

Off-Plan Share

The percentage of transactions that are off-plan (buying before or during construction). Dubai's off-plan market is massive — 60–75% is normal. Below 50% suggests buyers are preferring ready properties (usually a sign of market maturity or caution). Above 80% could signal speculative excess.

Key questions to ask:

Which developers are driving off-plan volume? (Emaar, DAMAC, and Sobha tend to signal quality)
What payment plans are being offered? (Longer post-handover plans suggest developers are working harder to sell)
What's the handover timeline? (3–5 years of capital lock-up has implications for your portfolio)

Opportunity lens:

Off-plan can offer 15–30% discounts vs ready properties, but you're paying for time risk and developer risk. If off-plan share is rising while mortgage share is falling, the market is becoming more speculative — good for short-term flips, riskier for long-term holds.

Price Growth (YoY)

Year-over-year price growth removes seasonal noise and shows the real direction. Double-digit growth (10%+) is strong but unsustainable long-term. 5–8% is healthy. Negative growth doesn't always mean 'bad' — it can signal a buying window.

Key questions to ask:

Is growth accelerating or decelerating? (Accelerating mid-cycle is bullish; decelerating at peak levels is a warning)
How does this compare to inflation? (Real returns = price growth minus inflation)
Are all segments growing equally, or is growth concentrated in luxury?

Opportunity lens:

The best entry points are often when YoY growth is slowing from high levels — prices are still rising but the frenzy is cooling. The worst entry points are when growth is accelerating from already high levels.

This is Stephen Leckie's perspective on how to interpret market data — it's education, not financial advice. Every market situation is different. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

69 sources · Scanned 12:09 GST

Steven's Take

SentimentBullish

PricesRising

VolumeRising

Weekly transaction values at AED 26.71 billion with 65% off-plan share and 84% cash buyers signal a market operating at record velocity with structural demand drivers intact — but when two-thirds of volume is future delivery, the next 18 months belong to developers who can actually hand over keys.

Dubai recorded AED 26.71 billion in real estate transactions last week — the highest weekly value in the emirate's history and 12% above the rolling six-month average. This isn't a single mega-deal inflating the number; it's sustained institutional deployment across residential segments.

January's cumulative transaction value hit AED 72.4 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase, with off-plan sales capturing AED 25.98 billion or 65% of total volume.

When two-thirds of market activity is tied to future delivery, completion risk becomes the dominant variable — developers with proven 2024-2025 handover records now trade at premiums to new entrants. Cash buyers represented 84% of January transactions as mortgage-financed deals dropped to 16%, reducing systemic leverage but increasing sensitivity to liquidity shocks in source markets like India and the UK. End-users accounted for 85% of volume, a structural shift from the speculator-heavy cycles of 2013-2014 that extends price cycles and raises the floor on corrections.

Jumeirah Village Circle transaction counts doubled month-over-month at sub-AED 1,000 psf, repricing the floor for affordable Dubai, while prime properties above AED 2,000 psf posted 20.4% annual appreciation as population approached 4.5 million with a daytime peak of 6.

1 million. The luxury segment isn't overheating — it's repricing to reflect permanent residency demand driven by Golden Visa holders and corporate relocations rather than transient speculation.

Headlines That Matter

Dubai records AED 26.71 billion in weekly real estate transactions — new record

Why this matters

Weekly transaction value hit AED 26.71 billion — the highest recorded week in Dubai's history. This isn't seasonal noise or a single mega-deal inflating the number; it's broad-based volume at elevated pricing. When weekly run rates sustain above AED 20 billion for consecutive periods, it signals institutional capital is still deploying at scale despite three years of price appreciation. The correction everyone's waiting for isn't materializing because demand fundamentals — population growth, Gol

Off-plan sales reach AED 25.98 billion in January 2026 — 65% of total volume

Why this matters

Off-plan transactions captured 65% of January volume at AED 25.98 billion — a 45% year-on-year increase. When two-thirds of market activity is tied to future delivery, completion risk becomes the dominant variable for capital preservation. Developers with proven handover track records are now trading at premiums to new entrants. The market is bifurcating: established names with 2024-2025 delivery histories command investor confidence, while untested launches face longer absorption despite aggres

Cash buyers dominate 2025-2026 transactions — mortgage share drops to 16%

Why this matters

Mortgage-financed transactions fell to 16% of total volume as high-net-worth buyers deploy capital directly to secure priority access and developer discounts. This shift reduces systemic leverage risk but also signals pricing has reached levels where traditional financing doesn't pencil for yield-focused investors. When 84% of buyers pay cash, the market becomes less sensitive to interest rate movements but more vulnerable to liquidity shocks in source markets — watch capital flows from India, U

Prime properties above AED 2,000 psf surge 20.4% annually as population nears 4.5 million

Why this matters

Properties priced above AED 2,000 per square foot posted 20.4% annual appreciation as Dubai's population approached 4.5 million with a daytime peak of 6.1 million. This demographic expansion — driven by Golden Visa holders, corporate relocations, and family-focused immigration — is absorbing supply faster than developers can deliver. The luxury segment isn't overheating; it's repricing to reflect permanent residency demand rather than transient investor speculation. Areas like Palm Jumeirah and

End-users account for 85% of transactions — investor flipping activity declines

Why this matters

End-user buyers now represent 85% of transaction volume — a structural shift from the speculator-heavy cycles of 2013-2014. Buyers are prioritizing larger homes, wellness-focused communities, and immediate occupancy over quick flips. This composition change extends price cycles because owner-occupiers hold longer and absorb volatility. When the market is dominated by residents rather than traders, corrections become shallower and recoveries slower — but the floor is higher because distressed sel

MarketPulse

Transactions (7d)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Avg Price / sq ft

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Off-Plan Share

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Price Growth (YoY)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

MarketPulse

Transactions (7d)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Avg Price / sq ft

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Off-Plan Share

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Price Growth (YoY)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens: