Market Pulse | Steven Leckie

Transactions3,570Weekly transaction count across DubaiSource: The National

Avg Price / sq ftAED 1,950Market-wide average price per sqftSource: newsbytesapp.com

Off-Plan65%% of sales that are future deliverySource: Reuters

YoY Growth+14.0%Last reported value

Transactions (7d)

Weekly transaction count is the market's heartbeat. More transactions = more activity = more liquidity. In Dubai, healthy weekly volume is typically 1,200–2,000 transactions. Below 800 suggests a quiet market; above 2,500 suggests a heated one.

Key questions to ask:

What proportion are off-plan vs ready? (Tells you if it's speculation or end-user demand)
What proportion are mortgage-backed? (Higher mortgage share = more end-users, more sustainable)
Is volume rising alongside prices, or diverging?

Opportunity lens:

High transaction volume gives you negotiating power — more options, more sellers, more data to benchmark. Low volume means fewer opportunities but potentially less competition if you find the right deal.

Avg Price / sq ft

This is the average price per square foot across all Dubai property transactions. Think of it as the market's pulse — when this number moves, the entire market is moving.

Key questions to ask:

Is this driven by luxury areas (Palm, Downtown) pulling the average up, or is it broad-based growth?
How does this compare to the city I'm investing from? (London: ~AED 5,200/sqft, Singapore: ~AED 3,800/sqft — Dubai is still relatively affordable)
Is the rate of change accelerating or slowing?

Opportunity lens:

A rising average with rising transaction volume suggests genuine demand, not just price inflation. A rising average with falling volume could signal that only expensive properties are trading — the broader market may be cooling.

Off-Plan Share

The percentage of transactions that are off-plan (buying before or during construction). Dubai's off-plan market is massive — 60–75% is normal. Below 50% suggests buyers are preferring ready properties (usually a sign of market maturity or caution). Above 80% could signal speculative excess.

Key questions to ask:

Which developers are driving off-plan volume? (Emaar, DAMAC, and Sobha tend to signal quality)
What payment plans are being offered? (Longer post-handover plans suggest developers are working harder to sell)
What's the handover timeline? (3–5 years of capital lock-up has implications for your portfolio)

Opportunity lens:

Off-plan can offer 15–30% discounts vs ready properties, but you're paying for time risk and developer risk. If off-plan share is rising while mortgage share is falling, the market is becoming more speculative — good for short-term flips, riskier for long-term holds.

Price Growth (YoY)

Year-over-year price growth removes seasonal noise and shows the real direction. Double-digit growth (10%+) is strong but unsustainable long-term. 5–8% is healthy. Negative growth doesn't always mean 'bad' — it can signal a buying window.

Key questions to ask:

Is growth accelerating or decelerating? (Accelerating mid-cycle is bullish; decelerating at peak levels is a warning)
How does this compare to inflation? (Real returns = price growth minus inflation)
Are all segments growing equally, or is growth concentrated in luxury?

Opportunity lens:

The best entry points are often when YoY growth is slowing from high levels — prices are still rising but the frenzy is cooling. The worst entry points are when growth is accelerating from already high levels.

This is Stephen Leckie's perspective on how to interpret market data — it's education, not financial advice. Every market situation is different. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

68 sources · Scanned 06:01 GST

Steven's Take

Dubai's transaction velocity held at 3,570 deals per week during active regional conflict — when capital keeps moving at that pace while equity markets panic, you're watching a market that has fundamentally repriced geopolitical risk as noise, not signal.

The market is holding transaction velocity at 3,500+ deals per week while equity traders panic — that's the gap between asset-level fundamentals and portfolio sentiment. When missiles are in the news cycle and weekly volume stays above 3,000 transactions, you're watching a market that has repriced geopolitical risk downward. The 20% index drop is portfolio managers exiting Middle East exposure, not Dubai buyers walking away.

The 65% off-plan share is the number that matters for the next 24 months. Two-thirds of 2025's volume is tied to properties that don't exist yet, which concentrates all your return assumptions into developer execution and completion timelines. If you're buying off-plan today, you're not betting on Dubai — you're betting on a specific developer's ability to deliver on schedule in a market where 180,000 units are scheduled for handover through 2028. That's not bearish, but it's not diversified either.

Watch completion rates in Q2 2026. If developers start pushing handover dates or offering extended payment plans, that's your signal that foreign appetite is cooling faster than supply can adjust. Until then, transaction data says the market is functioning normally under abnormal conditions.

What to Watch

February transaction volume up 2.51% YoY to 15,369 deals — when growth slows to mid-single digits after a multi-year run, that's equilibrium, not exhaustion.Khaleej Times
Primary market captured 11,351 sales worth AED 42.1 billion in February versus 5,628 resales at AED 18.6 billion — that 2:1 ratio means most capital is betting on future delivery, not immediate cash flow.Bazaar Times
RERA introduced shared housing regulation with AED 1 million fines — when enforcement gets this aggressive, informal rental supply gets regulated out and official rent indices capture more of the market.Gulf News
Palm Jumeirah villa sold for AED 220 million at AED 3,787 per square foot — when ultra-luxury transactions clear at record pricing during regional conflict, that's capital treating Dubai as a safe haven, not a risk asset.Gulf News
Dubai Creek Tower design tender expected in 2026 — when Emaar revives a shelved mega-project, that's a signal they're confident in 2027-2030 demand, not just 2026 sales velocity.ritukant.com

Market Commentary

Dubai Land Department reported 3,570 transactions worth AED 11.93 billion between March 2-9, holding steady despite regional military escalation. That weekly run rate puts March on track for 15,000+ deals — in line with February's 15,369 transactions that totaled AED 45.39 billion. The 2.51% year-over-year volume increase signals expansion without overheating.

Off-plan deals hit 65% of total 2025 volume according to Reuters, concentrating risk in a 24-36 month delivery window. Primary market sales reached 11,351 transactions worth AED 42.1 billion in February versus 5,628 resales at AED 18.6 billion, per fäm Properties. That 2:1 primary-to-secondary ratio means two-thirds of capital is betting on future delivery, not immediate occupancy.

Palm Jumeirah recorded a AED 220 million villa sale at AED 3,787 per square foot on Amali Island, while Dubai Creek Harbour apartments are transacting at AED 2,399 per square foot. Pricing remains range-bound between AED 1,700-2,200 per square foot across mid-tier segments. The luxury segment continues to absorb capital with no distress signals.

Dubai introduced new shared housing regulation with AED 1 million fines for non-compliance, tightening enforcement on overcrowded units. RERA's move reduces shadow supply and formalizes rental contracts, supporting official rent index growth. DIFC launched PropTech 2033 roadmap, signaling continued regulatory modernization.

Headlines That Matter

Dubai records 3,570 sales transactions worth AED 11.93 billion in one week despite regional conflict

Why this matters

3,570 transactions in a single week during active regional conflict tells you everything about capital conviction in Dubai. That's not panic selling or frozen markets — that's institutional money and HNWIs treating geopolitical noise as a buying opportunity. When transaction velocity holds at this level while missiles are in the news cycle, you're watching a market that has fundamentally repriced risk downward.

Off-plan deals hit 65% of total Dubai transactions in 2025, creating future delivery risk concentration

Why this matters

Two-thirds of Dubai's transaction volume is now tied to properties that don't exist yet. That's not inherently bearish — it's how growth markets work — but it concentrates risk in a 24-36 month delivery window. If foreign appetite cools or financing tightens before those units complete, developers face a repricing event. The 65% figure is the highest concentration in a decade and makes completion timelines the single most important variable for 2026-2028 returns.

Dubai property index drops 20% in five days, erasing all 2025 gains amid Iran conflict escalation

Why this matters

A 20% index drop in five days is a sentiment shock, not a fundamental repricing. The index tracks listed real estate stocks and developer equities — not actual transaction prices, which have held. This is portfolio managers de-risking Middle East exposure, not Dubai buyers walking away. The gap between equity market panic and on-ground transaction stability is the arbitrage opportunity for investors who can separate headline risk from asset-level performance.

Dubai records 15,369 residential transactions in February 2026 totaling AED 45.39 billion, up 2.51% year-over-year

Why this matters

February's 2.51% YoY volume increase is the definition of market maturity — growth without overheating. At AED 45.39 billion, that's sustained institutional-grade liquidity, not speculative froth. The fact that volume is growing modestly while prices hold tells you supply and demand are finding equilibrium. This is what healthy market expansion looks like after a multi-year run.

Dubai introduces new shared housing regulation law with fines up to AED 1 million for non-compliance

Why this matters

This is RERA tightening the screws on illegal bed-space rentals and overcrowded units — a direct response to population growth outpacing affordable housing supply. The AED 1 million fine ceiling signals enforcement intent, not consultation. For landlords, this means compliance costs rise and informal rental income streams get regulated out. For the market, it reduces shadow supply and pushes more tenants into formal rental contracts, which supports official rent index growth.

MarketPulse

Transactions (7d)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Avg Price / sq ft

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Off-Plan Share

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Price Growth (YoY)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

What to Watch

MarketPulse

Transactions (7d)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Avg Price / sq ft

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Off-Plan Share

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

Price Growth (YoY)

Key questions to ask:

Opportunity lens:

What to Watch